Update (1:23 p.m.): The bill has the majority. It will pass. Bailout approved.
Update (1:20 p.m.): The Republican yes votes have reached 67, meaning that they have successfully convinced more members of their caucus to vote for the measure. This is a sign the bill will pass. Oh, it's gone to 71 as we typed.
Update (1:16 p.m.): Bailout vote is underway. So far the count is 137 for and 66 against. 91 Democrats and 50 Republicans have voted for the bill. A source on Capitol Hill says the finally tally should be somewhere near 241 votes for the bill, if members vote as leadership expects.
Update (1:07 p.m.): The voice vote passed but, of course, they are going to take a roll call vote. The time to vote is fifteen minutes. As we saw on Wednesday, however, the leadership can extend the voting period for far longer if they feel they need to to get the votes.
Update (12:57 p.m.): Nancy Pelosi is speaking, taking a far more conciliatory tone than she did on Monday, thanking Republican leaders. This is a sign they are getting ready for a vote.
Update (12:52 p.m.): The leadership count differs from the count we reported earlier. The leadership shows 268 Aye votes, with 19 members switching to "No" for political cover so long as the bill looks certain to pass.
Update (12:35 p.m.): The bill is still set to pass. Because of the unpopularity of the bailout, the leadership will let as many House members vote against the bill as possible without endangering its passing. Right now 223 House members are expected to vote yes, according to one source familiar with conservativeon the Hill who are doing an unofficial whip count.
Here's the latest list of lawmakers who voted No on Monday who are expected to vote Yes today.
Democrats
Shelley Berkley (NV-01)
Emanuel Cleaver (MO-05)
John Lewis (GA-05)
Hilda Solis (CA-32)
Donna Edwards (MD-04)
Jesse Jackson Jr. (IL-02)
Bill Pascrell (NJ-08)
Republican
Gresham Barrett (SC-03)
Howard Coble (NC-06)
Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
Tim Murphy (PA-18)
Jim Ramstad (MN-03)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18)
John Shadegg (AZ-03)
Lee Terry (NE-02)
Patrick Tiberi (OH-12)
Zach Wamp (TN-03)
Judy Biggert (IL-13)
Update (12:15 p.m.): The House will likely vote within a half hour, and almost certainly before the hour is done. House pages have be dispatched to begin herding members to the House floor. Pelosi, whose speech was cited by Republicans as causing a revolt on Monday, has been encouraged not to say to speak ahead of the roll call vote.
Update (11:45 a.m.): The situation on the Hill has settled down after the midmorning panic we reported. Believing they have a solid majority in support of the bailout bill, the Democrats are now discussing which Democratic House members they can afford to permit to cast "Nay" votes in order to avoid public backlash. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to call for a vote on the bailout as soon as possib.e
Update (11:38 a.m.): The leadership emerged from its caucus appearing to be in good spirits. "No grim faces," a source says. Looks like this thing should still be in good shape, despite House Republicans falling short of vote goals and threatened Blue Dog Democrat revolt.
Update (11:28 a.m.): The House leadership seems to have stemmed the tide of congressmen moving against the bill. Earlier, the unofficial vote tally stood at 263 "Aye" votes, far more than needed to pass the bill but short of what lawmakers believed they had last night. Now the unofficial vote tally stands at 267 "Aye" votes, moving upwards as members of Arizona delegation have agreed to vote in favor of the bailout, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Update (11:16 a.m.): The latest unofficial vote tally still shows a majority of the House voting for the measure. A joint leadership conference is underway, attempting to avoid having to produce another compromise bill that would strip out some of what some House members regard as "pork" in the Senate's version othe the bailout bill.
A big danger to the bailout at this point is that a failure of the Republican leadership to produce the promised votes may lead Democrats, who fear voter backlash against the bailout, to switch back to opposing the bill.
The House Republicans are still about fifteen votes short of garnering a majority needed to reach their goal of 80 GOP votes for the deal, according to a person familiar with the situation on Capitol Hill. Despite a week of frenzied arm-twisting and favor-promising, a significant number of Republicans have refused to budge. While a few votes may still be turned, staffers believe that the vote count will still come up 10 Republicans short of leadership goals.
The situation on Capitol Hill is rapidly deteriorating. Some of the turned Democratic votes are said to be contingent on the Republicans getting more votes out of their caucus. The fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats are considering a revolt. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is screaming at people, trying to restore order but only adding to the feeling of panic.
The vote will likely be delayed for hours as leaders of both parties scramble to prevent another failure of the bailout. There is talk that President George Bush may actually be going to Capitol Hill to add pressure on lawmakers.
In the first House vote on the bailout on Monday, only 65 Republicans supported the bill. Even if Republicans get to 70 votes, the bill will fail in the House without additional Democratic support. We're told, however, that Democrats have marshalled many more votes in favor of the bill.
